future of israel economy

China and Russia step in to increase their support for Egypt in various ways: the provision of COVID-19 vaccines for free or on favorable terms, replacement of the UAE as the primary funder of infrastructure projects, and assistance to President el-Sisi by enhancing his digital repression capabilities. Related Content Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as interesting research 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. 26. David Passig, a renowned futurist at Bar-Ilan University, speaks about the future of Israel's Economy. 4. Although we did not consider scenarios of Israels internal development, and instead focused mainly on its external environment, the former may ultimately prove to be the most decisive variable for its future. Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. When looking ahead, the continued decline of energy revenues and growing populations could lead to the fracturing of existing social contracts between governments and citizens, potentially involving reduced use of incentives or subsidies and greater use of force to ensure regime survival. November 1, 2009. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-fina. Sagatom Saha. Over the course of the decade, between 2020 and 2030, the U.S. places sporadic but severe pressure on Israel to respond affirmatively to new peace proposals regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, requiring Jerusalem to make considerable concessions. Since the start of the crisis in early 2020, economic institutions have frequently updated their forecasts based on projected energy use and the global economic recovery.19 Political, military, and social aspects of regional dynamics in the Middle East remain volatile. Please contact us in case of abuse. Previously, he had a 21-year career in the IDF, mainly in the Israeli Defense Intelligence (Aman). Bringing. The Middle Eastern regimes incompetent handling of the COVID-19 crisis along with worsening structural economic problems leads to a growing sense of frustration among the populations. Road Less Traveled: Different Methods, Different Futures. Journal of Future Studies. Economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter, with GDP expanding 5.8% in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) (Q3: +2.1% SAAR). During this period, he was employed primarily in research and analysis missions, and dealt with the most important strategic and operational challenges in front of the IDF and the Israeli government, in almost every geographical area of interest to the State of Israel. Cairo is also facing intensifying water scarcity, and then, as a result, a food shortage ensues in Egypt and causes the price of basic foodstuffs to rise in nearby countries. August 21, 2019. https://dayan.org/content/middle-east-demographics-2030. Russia completes construction of a naval and air bases in Sudan and gradually increases its permanent Red Sea flotilla. Professor Karnit Flug, the vice president of the Israel Democracy Institute and the former governor of the Bank of Israel, also supported Ben-Davids argument by stating that, With a growth rate of 8.1% in 2021, Israels economy is among the fastest growing advanced economies among OECD countries.. The vision is to bring the levels of the factors of production up to those in the benchmark economies, including investment in public infrastructure, and in particular transportation infrastructure and ICT infrastructure; improvement in human capital by establishing a post-secondary vocational education and training (VET) system, in parallel to the academic system; and the stimulation of the business sector through the reduction in the bureaucratic and wasteful regulatory burden. Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce interesting research. Science Direct. It only begins to recover slowly in early 2023, and energy prices are expected to remain lower than 2019 levels for the foreseeable future. Ari Heistein, c) Ideological Volatility: Increasing political repression in the region and the diminishing window for achieving non-violent political change may cause populations to look toward more radical and violent ideologies. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economy's strengths and weakness,. According to Reuters, the Saudi inflation rate has eased since November and is currently at 2.9%. Without reforms to increase the productivity growth rate, Israels relative GDP per capita is expected to deteriorate. Protests and the Future of Democracy in Israel March 9, 2023 34:50 A New Child Labor Crisis in America March 8, 2023 23:35 Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipelines? The rise of the sea level combined with an earthquake in the Mediterranean in 2025 generates a tsunami that hits the city of Alexandria hard,37 killing thousands and leaving 1 million homeless. Israel Economic Forecast Israel Economic Outlook GDP growth sped up to 5.8% in quarter-on-quarter annualized terms in Q4, as booming private consumption more than outweighed slower expansions in government spending and fixed investment, and a contraction in exports. Moscow seizes the changes in Tehran as an opportunity to realize its aim of establishing a natural gas cartel among the worlds top four suppliers: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Economic Forecast Summary (November 2022), Read the survey and access previous releases, The Abraham Accords do not constitute an irreversible change in the dynamics between Israel and Arab countries or entirely disconnect these relations from the Palestinian issue. Laborers from poorer countries in the Arab world are then offered work visas to Saudi Arabia to supplement the foreign workforce and the volume of remittances to countries such as Egypt and Yemen increases. Continued low energy prices have made the project of shipping gas from Israel to Europe no longer economically viable, and the Israeli government decides to use the gas for internal consumption and to sell it to Gaza. The current realities worldwide and in the Middle East highlight the importance of preparing for the next decade in the region through the lens of scenarios rather than straightforward predictions. 9. Alun Rhydderch. Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. Introduction The achievements of the Israeli economy since 1948 have been immense. 2023 The Times of Israel , All Rights Reserved. Elevated inflation will slow disposable income and private consumption. In fact, experts predict that the Israeli economy will grow by over 5% in 2022. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by other Middle Eastern countries might not be initiated by Iran, could occur suddenly, and may involve several new actors almost in parallel. 32. http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf. For a glimpse of Israels future, look not at Poland or Hungary, but at Afghanistan, Rising Prices in Israel: A Call for Justice, Step up the pressure: Demonstrators prepare for 11th week of escalating protests, Public split on whether to follow High Court or govt in constitutional crisis: poll, Jewish communal world baffled after Ben Gvir targets mainstream US aid group JDC, Israeli envoy in NY deeply concerned by countrys direction as overhaul advances, Blinken urges consensus on Israeli judicial overhaul: The best way forward, International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Putin on suspected war crimes. Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time. Leo Blanken. Although 60 percent of adult Israelis have performed military service, the rate rises to 90 percent in the high-tech sector. Joseph S. Nye Jr. Peering into the Future. Foreign Affairs. This scenario shows that strong American involvement in the region alone might not guarantee that Israels security interests are protected. Israels GDP per capita is not catching up to that of comparable OECD countries and the gap has remained unchanged for more than 40 years. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that the next decade will see significant progress in closing those gaps, and some of the worlds most fragile states that are situated in the Middle East might become further destabilized or involved in inter-state conflicts.28. Beyond the distinct methods, it is also worth keeping in mind that different vantage points will produce different scenarios. Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of USA & Europe. What this suggests is the importance of considering in scenarios, or in the analysis of the implications of scenarios, what we might call counter-trends or anti-trends that could emerge instead of, or even alongside, an expected trend. China signs an agreement with Field Marshall Khalifa Hifter to operate the Benghazi port. The Israel Economy: The First Decade. When the talks falter and then implode, the result is a major escalation of fighting between Israel and the Palestinians that then leads to the cutting of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states, including longstanding partners Egypt and Jordan. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa. Arab Barometer. However, predictions show that inflation should be down to 2.7% by the end of next year, which will put it within the official annual average of 1-3% inflation rate range. Report: Bank officials believe $4 billion moved out of Israel in recent weeks. We are proposing a strategy to deal with the main factors that can be influenced by government action and which have an effect on the productivity gap between Israel and the benchmark OECD economies. e) Growing Demographic Pressures: The population of the Middle East is expected to rise by about 20%,24 to 581 million people, by 2030. 12. Traders Union has released a list of reputable online stock brokers to go with in 2022, but there are also other options that can be utilized as long as investors do their due diligence. It's an unusual and innovative global market. Tuesday, March 3, 2020 Growth is projected to pick up towards its potential rate in 2024 as inflation abates. Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. OECD. In the second half of the decade, Israel capitalizes on the relative weakness of Egypt and the Gulf states in order to expand cooperation with them. The Israeli Economy tells the story of this remarkable transformation, shedding critical new light on Israel's rapid economic growth. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. The Future of Israel's Economy. Prime Minister Modi's "Reform, Perform and Transform" agenda is yielding remarkable results. Avi Hasson: I want to add a purely economic, practical, and instrumental view to this. In its latest innovation index, Bloomberg ranks Israel as one of the world's top five countries for R & D, along with Finland, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden. 13. This scenario depicts how making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition. The COVID-19 crisis strains the already tenuous ability to develop long-term predictions, as even deciphering the present reality remains a challenge and basic assumptions regarding the factors shaping the future have been called into question. Mapping the Global Future. National Intelligence Council. The Global Risks Report 2020. January 15, 2020. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020. Daniel holds a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) and a BA (magna cum laude) in Middle Eastern history, both from Tel Aviv University. The U.S. and the EU are not involved in the process. The trigger can be external, demographic, technological, ideological, or any other potential development capable of having a major impact if the weak signal were to become markedly stronger. In this scenario, reduced U.S. pressure on Iran does not eliminate the possibility of regime change, but the new regime may not enter the Western orbit or forfeit hegemonic and nuclear ambitions if doing so has not or cannot deliver considerable improvements in Iranians living conditions. It is important when projecting multiple scenarios to weigh key variables differently in the range of scenarios. 14. 6. Europe is targeting 40 percent. This was due to tighter restrictions imposed on the country's tourism industry following the coronavirus. This timing, in addition to the social and economic crises ripping through Lebanon, is identified by Israel as an opportunity to take military action to degrade Hezbollahs military capabilities and the Iranian nuclear project. The IDF's 23rd Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, will need to safely and swiftly maneuver through a domestic minefield without entangling the military in politics. Charles Roxburg. November 5, 2019. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/turkeys-dam-building-program-could-ge. Turkeys dam-building program could generate fresh conflict in the Middle East. ASPI. It also shows how the erosion of the U.S.-Israeli alliance and the emergence of a new regional security architecture could result in additional security challenges for Israel. Within the context of this arrangement, a peace agreement is signed on the division of Cyprus, as well as the territorial waters in the eastern Mediterranean (Greece holds onto its islands, while Turkey significantly expands its exclusive economic zone). Horizon scanning focuses on emergent issues that might gain strength in the future and lead to systemic change. November 10, 2020. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/middle-east-economy/. Paul Rivlin. Climate change could have significant implications for the future dynamics of the region, in terms of the fallout from worsening phenomena like water scarcity as well as cooperative relations developed in order to mitigate such problems. Finally, hard-won negotiated assets such as the Abraham Accords or a better deal with Iran might disintegrate quickly because of the complexity and inter-connectivity of regional security problems. At the insistence of the U.S., simmering tensions within the GCC are diminished when Saudi Arabia and the UAE take public and substantial steps to boost economic and political ties with Qatar in exchange for Doha cutting back its ties to the regional Islamist camp led by Turkey. China increases its support for Egypt as a means to reduce Russian influence in the country and in Africa more broadly. Itai Brun17 as helpful for thinking about possible futures, facilitating decisionmakers consideration of different ideas about policy, the exercise of power, and military buildup, and useful for governments seeking to prepare themselves for the future.18. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. This information should put traders at ease, but when purchasing stocks, it is important not just to focus on what stocks should be purchased, but how to choose a good broker. Please use the following structure: example@domain.com, Send me The Times of Israel Daily Edition. 28. At the same time, the next country in the Middle East to acquire nuclear weapons is not necessarily Iran, and several nuclear powers might appear in parallel/cascade over a short period of time. Order from Chaos (ret.) d) Proliferation of Dangerous Technologies: The unraveling of arms control agreements increases the risk of nuclear proliferation,23 while the largely unregulated proliferation of precision-guided munitions has enabled the emergence of strategic non-nuclear threats in the region. The Assad regime in Syria is once more welcomed back into the Arab League in exchange for efforts to reduce Iranian influence and activities on its territory. Increasing U.S.-China economic cooperation is an example of the NIC anticipating how things would develop but not how they would be evaluated in 15 years time. Middle East Institute After the price collapse in April 2020, petrostates will find themselves dependent on a volatile (at best) oil market that will prove the determining factor for whether or not they will be able to balance their annual budget. Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West., The variables of U.S. involvement in the Middle East and the regions economic situation provided the basic outline for mapping out scenarios, though developments in all four cases were non-linear rather than the straightforward and uneventful continuation of existing trends. In 2030, Iran declares that the treachery of the West and the relentless pressure on the regime have left Tehran with no choice but to develop nuclear weapons and it carries out a successful underground test in the countrys eastern desert region. At the same time, Israel's economy -- in which the jobless rate fell below 8% in April and inflation stands at 0.8% -- is losing close to 200 million shekels ($61 million) a day from a conflict . The matrix of four scenarios is derived from combinations of the extreme values for those two factors. Brun Itai. The U.S. administration is committed to tackling Middle Eastern challenges through proactive diplomacy. In the words of former NIC Chairman Joseph Nye Jr., The job, after all, is not so much to predict the future as to help policymakers think about the future. Through the reduction of security cooperation and freezing of military aid, Washington (unsuccessfully) seeks to pressure Cairo to roll back relations with its great power rivals. September 7, 2019. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/rising-sea-levels-threaten-egypt-. For those who might contend that some aspects of the futures sketched out seem unlikely or unrealistic, we acknowledge that they may not appear probable, but given the developments of 2020 we felt entitled if not obligated to abide by Herman Kahns advice to think the unthinkable.. Joseph Zeira takes readers from those early days to today, describing how Israel's economic development occurred amid intense fighting with the Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries. The widespread public criticism of the regime caused the military to announce President al-Sisis resignation, beginning a long period of political unrest throughout the country. 19. The Gulf monarchies increasing repression of their minority and dissident populations remains a major point of contention between Washington and its Arab allies. BEIJING Israel aspires to become the world's 15th largest economy by 2025, Economy and Industry Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday, arguing that Israel's power depends on its economic growth . One need look no further than the World Economic Forums report on global risks published in January 2020.1 It assessed the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak or instability in the global energy market as relatively unlikely, even though both ended up happening less than two months after the reports publication. It also highlights the formidable threats that climate change might pose to regional regimes as early as the next decade. It is worth noting that not all scenarios include the same building blocks, as for instance Lebanese Hezbollah is noticeably absent from some of them, because the idea is to highlight the unique challenges of a particular scenario rather than to recreate the decade ahead in all its complexity. But scenarios built only around such an assumption pay insufficient attention to any number of factors that are more representative of continuity and are potentially just as impactful as that which is changing. Overview of Methodologies. OECD. 23. In 2020 and 2021, the volume of international tourism in Israel has declined remarkably. However, the U.S. avoids a major break in ties due to their strategic importance. The two major variables that the authors used to map out the potential futures, due to their direct impact or correlation with numerous trends listed above, are as follows: 1) U.S. readiness to play a strong and shaping role in the Middle East, including the investment of resources, manpower, and political capital to support its allies and confront destabilizing actors. In addition, the regional economies will face considerable challenges in recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which inflicted severe damage on key industries. Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures, IV. They are intended to highlight the reality that over the course of the next decade Israels strategic environment could undergo fundamental changes. 22. Meanwhile, Jonathan Katz, the chief economist at Leader Capital Markets, announced that there, Latest updates put the annual inflation to be. November 2019. https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/social-capital-public-. Water Scarcity Clock. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. Doing so helps ensure against missing potentially important implications that the scenario developers can overlook if they are too close to the subject matter. Serious preparation for the future demands that Israel remain flexible and attentive to anticipate possible inflection points, devise options to cope with their consequences, and mitigate the risks of high-impact scenarios even if it is difficult to determine their likelihood. The scenarios are exploratory, rather than predictive or normative,20 meaning that they aim to answer the question of what can happen rather than what will or what should. Daniel Rakov is a research fellow at the INSS. The speedy global economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is exploited by the U.S. to increase pressure on China and reduce commitments in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Iran sets out to rebuild its nuclear program in heavily fortified underground sites and quickly reinforces Hezbollah capabilities, including the provision of additional stockpiles of precision weapons. I. One of Washingtons key aims in the Middle East is limiting Chinese and (secondarily) Russian influence. The COVID-19 crisis, which inflicted severe damage on key industries to the subject.. Terry Collins as early as the next decade: I want to a. And Transform & quot ; agenda is yielding remarkable results and Terry Collins tighter restrictions imposed on country. Decade Israels strategic environment could undergo fundamental changes is derived from combinations of Israeli! 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